Blog

By David Zarazua

The issue of human migration is becoming more important as population displacement increases due to climate change, resulting from its effects on wind and rain patterns; the change in intensity and frequency of natural phenomena such as hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, floods, rising sea levels, and the decrease in ice caps, etc., which transform the living conditions of many human communities. These phenomena have forced millions of people around the world to move to other regions. 

The consequences of climate change lead to increased risks such as: Rising sea levels, leading to increased risk of flooding in coastal areas; salinization of croplands, leading to productivity losses and reduced freshwater security; loss of agricultural land due to permanent flooding; alteration in the intensity of storms and cyclones affecting coastal settlements; variation in rainfall patterns that could lead to flooding in some regions and fires in others; increased temperatures increase the risk of forest fires and directly affect human health with heat waves; transformation in the chemistry of water and therefore of marine and coastal ecosystems; melting of mountain glaciers increases the risk of flooding in nearby settlements; and the risk of rock avalanches and landslides could increase with the melting of mountain glaciers, and in the long term river flows will decrease as glaciers shrink, changing the mountain ecosystem and affecting water availability.

Climate has been a decisive factor in both large migrations and the rise and fall of nations throughout history. However, change is currently occurring at an unprecedented speed and global overpopulation is aggravating the situation. A 3°C increase in the average temperature of the Earth would increase water vapor by 25%. It is expected that rainfall would increase in the same proportion, as well as the intensity, extent and duration of droughts, as in many places that are already experiencing the effects of changing rainfall patterns.

According to the International Organization for Migration, nine out of ten extreme environmental events are attributed to climate change. 98% of those affected by natural disasters live in developing countries.

Given these growing populations, and the fact that a significant amount of existing migration is from rural to urban areas, there is clearly a need for greater emphasis on urbanization policy development. Reinforced by the combination of continued rural-urban migration and increasing environmental vulnerability within large cities. Environmental change over the next 50 years will potentially compromise the development and growth trajectories of economies around the world.

Migration will become more significant as demographic, economic, cultural, political and environmental factors become more pronounced and influenced by technological developments in transportation and communications, making it easier to obtain information about opportunities in other territories, and the price of traveling to them more affordable.

Although climate change as the only variable that generates migration is still a little-developed topic, it can be assumed that it will be presented as the result of multiple factors, and the climate variable will become increasingly relevant with the increase in the average temperature of the planet and the consequences derived from it.